According to media reports, although the global photovoltaic industry is suffering from the cold current of shrinking demand and overcapacity, it has not quenched China's enthusiasm for photovoltaic power station investment. The crazy behavior of some local governments in pursuit of economic growth and gambling psychology of photovoltaic enterprises may make China's installed capacity about double the government's target at the beginning of this year.

Experts pointed out that due to the bottleneck of grid connection and energy storage problems, photovoltaic power plants may become a "surplus" field. This is bound to stimulate the central government to tighten its approval authority to avoid another round of tragedy similar to the large-scale "abandonment of wind power".

According to his estimation, only from the "road strip" issued by the Gansu provincial government, the production capacity of photovoltaic power plants in Gansu this year is estimated to reach 2-3gw. In addition, in Qinghai and other places, it is estimated that the installed capacity of new photovoltaic power generation in China is expected to reach 5-7gw (gigawatts).

Wu Dacheng, Secretary General of the photovoltaic Professional Committee of China Renewable Energy Society, previously predicted that China's photovoltaic installed capacity may exceed 5GW this year, double that of last year.

This scale is even much higher than the total installed capacity of all PV in China, and about twice the target scale of adding 3gw this year set by the government. According to the power balance report of China Power Council, the new online capacity of photovoltaic ground power stations this year is only 1GW, and the power grid consumption capacity is still the biggest bottleneck.

Meng Xiangan, vice president of China Renewable Energy Society, pointed out pointedly that at present, photovoltaic power generation is still blindly pursuing installed capacity. Such rapid development will cause great waste and deviate from the total target of renewable energy.

China is already the world's largest producer of photovoltaic cells, including Jingao, Wuxi Suntech, Yingli and Changzhou Trina Solar, which are among the largest manufacturers in the world. However, more than 80% of China's photovoltaic products are exported.

Since last year, China's photovoltaic market has been opened. In terms of policies, the relevant policies on photovoltaic power generation were basically issued in 2011, including the national unified on grid price of photovoltaic power generation; The overall goal of photovoltaic development in the 12th Five Year Plan has been greatly improved; The electricity price surcharge used to subsidize renewable energy, including photovoltaic power generation, has been increased from 4% to 8%.

Experts from the national development and Reform Commission previously said that in 2011, China's newly added photovoltaic installed capacity was about 2.5gw, bringing the total to 3.3gw. According to the statistics of PV tech, an industry observer, China's photovoltaic projects in 2011 were mainly large-scale ground power stations, including 103 projects with single-phase capacity of 10MW and above. The total installation capacity of ground power stations exceeded 2.3gw, accounting for 88% of the total installation capacity. As the first province to launch the feed in tariff policy of 1.15 yuan per kWh, Qinghai Province also has the largest installation volume, accounting for 36% of the total installation volume, followed by Ningxia.

China Energy News recently quoted an authoritative person close to the national energy administration as saying that the installed capacity target of China's photovoltaic 12th Five Year Plan has been basically determined as 21gw. During this period, China's new installed capacity will encourage the construction of distributed photovoltaic power generation projects represented by golden sun demonstration project and photoelectric building integration.

"It is very possible for the state to approve recycling projects. The senior management should also act in time to control the extreme practices of local governments." a senior industry expert of a listed power enterprise pointed out.